The ongoing war in Iran has triggered mounting humanitarian concerns across the Middle East, with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) warning of a “worrying escalation in humanitarian needs” as large-scale displacement continues into the second week of hostilities.
According to UN officials, millions of people across the region have been affected by the fighting. In Lebanon alone, hundreds of thousands have been displaced amid ongoing airstrikes and evacuation orders. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric reported that more than 660,000 people registered as displaced with Lebanese authorities in the past week.
Entire communities have reportedly fled areas south of the Litani River, while additional displacement has occurred in the Bekaa Valley and the suburbs of Beirut. Civilians have sought refuge in public spaces such as Martyrs’ Square in Beirut.
Addressing the United Nations Security Council, humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that “mass displacement is accelerating,” creating conditions that increase the risks of exploitation, trafficking, and sexual violence—especially among women and girls.
Inside Iran, the UNHCR estimates that more than three million people have been temporarily displaced, many fleeing the capital Tehran and other northern urban centers. Large numbers of people are moving into already crowded cities where shelter systems are struggling to cope.
Fletcher noted that hundreds of shelters are overcrowded and lack adequate sanitation and essential supplies, adding to the strain on humanitarian services.
Concerns in Europe
In Germany, officials have warned that a prolonged war could eventually lead to new refugee flows toward Europe. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation, saying a collapse of the Iranian state could have far-reaching consequences for both the Middle East and Europe.
“We do not want to see a Syrian scenario,” Merz said, referring to the massive displacement caused by the Syrian Civil War, which prompted large refugee arrivals in Europe beginning in 2015.
Germany remains one of the main destinations for refugees in Europe. By the end of 2023, nearly one million Syrians displaced by the Syrian conflict were living in Germany, according to government statistics. The country has also received more than 980,000 refugees from Ukraine since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Migration routes uncertain
Despite these concerns, migration experts say a large influx of refugees from Iran into Europe is unlikely in the short term. Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank, noted that strict border controls across the region limit possible escape routes.
Countries such as Turkey have heavily fortified their borders, making it extremely difficult for people fleeing the conflict to travel onward toward Europe.
“If borders are guarded by soldiers with orders to shoot, even the most desperate people cannot leave,” Knaus said.
