By Jose Maria Sison, Chairperson Emeritus
International League of Peoples’ Struggle
June 4, 2022
1. In 1986, the US flew the fascist dictator Marcos and his family out of the Philippines in order to save them from prosecution and trial for crimes of gross and systematic violations of human rights, plunder of colossal proportions and rigging of the 1986 elections.
2. There was no revolution in 1986 even as there were peaceful mass uprisings and a convergence of various forces to overthrow the Marcos fascist dictatorship. The ruling system of big compradors, landlords and bureaucrat capitalists remained intact. There was a mere change of US puppet rulers, from the Marcos fascist dictatorship to the pseudo-liberal democratic regime of Aquino within the semicolonial and semifeudal ruling system.
3. The US stabilized the Aquino regime with the Ramos military group as counter to the coup threats of the RAM-Enrile group. In a matter of five years, the Aquino regime made compromises with the Marcoses through the cousins of Peping Cojuangco and Danding Cojuangco and the intimate friends Tingting Cojuangco and Kokoy Romualdez. Thus, Imelda Marcos could run for the presidency in 1992.
4. Even as Imelda failed in her bid for the presidency, the Marcoses and Romualdezes had their bailiwicks in Ilocos Norte and Leyte in order to reestablish their political base and political power at the local level from 1992 to 2010. Through longtime patronage, they could easily get elected as mayors, governors and members of the Lower House of Congress.
5. Most important of all, the Cory Aquino regime did not take any effective actions against the accomplices of the fascist dictator Marcos in committing his crimes of fascist violence and corruption and his heirs were able to get away with at least 80 percent of the more than US$ 10 billion loot of the Marcoses through various legal maneuvers in the Philippines and abroad.
6. The fascist dictator’s son Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. was elected to a national office as senator in the ticket of Manuel Villar in 2010 and ran for the vice-presidency in 2016 but failed to win. He used his futile electoral protest against Robredo by claiming electoral fraud to draw constant national attention to himself.
7. It was in 2014 or thereabouts that BBM began to use the ill-gotten wealth of his family to make use of social media, mercenary columns and sham poll surveys in glorifying the fascist rule of his father as a golden age. He also benefited from references to to the graft-ridden infrastructure projects of his father in old-stock study textbooks distributed in public schools by the Department of Education.
8. In 2016, Duterte and the Marcos family made an alliance, with the former receiving a huge amount of money from the latter and related financiers. Duterte did not adopt BBM as his VP candidate but promised to support BBM as such discreetly. After election, he pleased the Marcoses by allowing the burial of Marcos senior in the national heroes’ cemetery, providing business advantages (e.g., taking over the Ongpin gambling business in favor of Greggy Araneta) and more importantly saving Imelda (along with other notorious plunderers like Arroyo, Estrada, Enrile, Revilla and others) from imprisonment after her conviction for plunder.
9. In the 2019 mid-term elections, Duterte had complete control over the Commission on Elections and the automated election system. He was able to make Imee Marcos, his valet Bong Go and top butcher Bato de la Rosa as senators and cut down to only six the Makabayan bloc Partylist representatives to the House of Representatives. There was no sustained post-election outrage and protests over the automated electoral fraud and no strong demand for scrapping the fraud-prone election system. Thus, the stage was set for the bigger electoral fraud in 2022.
10. Up to the elections of 2022, BBM did not do anything spectacular to endear himself to the electorate. Neither was there anything to make his chief opponent Robredo hated or disliked by the electorate. In fact, BBM was embarrassed for losing his election protest against her. His image as a spoiled brat, with no outstanding achievement, was widespread. He was ridiculed for being an absentee governor, using an administrator in his place, while he stayed mostly in Manila and was not fluent in Ilocano. His father’s notoriety as fascist dictator and plunderer continued and never helped to ameliorate BBM’s reputation as a spoiled brat and even as a cocaine addict.
11. In fact, as the 2022 elections campaign moved forward from February to May, the Robredo-Pangilinan tandem and slate gathered increasingly far larger mass rallies which dwarfed those of the Marcos-Duterte tandem and slate. The conservative opposition, the Catholic and other Christian organizations, the Makabayan Bloc and other legal democratic forces contributed to the huge mass mobilizations in favor of the Robredo-Pangilinan tandem.
12. The broad range of organized forces were able to effectively counter the Marcos and Duterte troll armies in the social media and the false poll surveys fabricated by the Pulse Asia. The Red-tagging done by the Duterte regime and by the troll armies of Marcos and Duterte was ineffective against the Robredo-Pangilinan tandem and slate even if to some extent the ultra-reactionaries in said slate bullied and harassed the Makabayan Bloc.
13. The Marcos and Duterte tandem did a variety of acts amounting to electoral fraud and terrorism, including vote buying, red-tagging and preventing opposition voters from voting due to the equipment breakdowns and red-tagging in areas of armed conflict. But the most decisive and biggest factor in making the Marcos-Duterte tandem and slate “win” was the massive automated electoral fraud accomplished by the tyrant Duterte through his complete control of Comelec, F2 Logistics and other local dummy contractors and the Smartmatic reduced to reflecting the stocks of pre-shaded ballots and pre-programmed electoral returns.
14. The biggest proofs of the electoral fraud were the giant leaps of registered and actual voters from 2019 to 2022, the super-speed of the vote count despite the previous day-long reports of equipment breakdown on May 9, the pre-programmed proportion of votes between the opposing tandems and the overkill evident in the “avalanche victory” (not only “landslide victory”) for the Marcos-Duterte tandem. The overkill in the cheating is so patent that it arouses immediate outrage rather than submission to the big lie.
It was simply impossible that the lackluster and mediocre Marcos received more than double the votes for Robredo. These impossible figures amount to patent big lies and electoral fraud. Despite the closed nontransparent automated election system, there is more than enough empirical evidence gathered by large numbers of voters, the Kontra-Daya, Vote Count Philippines and the International Observers Mission to prove that there was massive electoral fraud carried out by the Duterte regime.
15. The tyrant Duterte’s complete control of the nontransparent automated election system and the impossible and unbelievable results overshadow the claims of the Duterte regime, the pro-Marcos and pro-Duterte groups and some supposed independent groups and individuals that the Marcos-Duterte tandem successfully used the social media to dupe and dumb down the voters and did not have to cheat or benefit from the electoral fraud masterminded by Duterte. Thus, the masses of voters are held responsible for the false election of the Marcos-Duterte tandem and slate.
Some academic, journalistic and other amateur political pundits have exaggerated the Marcos use of the social media and other propaganda devices in order to claim that Duterte did not have to rig the 2022 elections because Marcos was moneyed and clever enough to dupe the voters and induce them to vote for him democratically.
It is a case of victim-blaming and arrogance towards the masses, especially by a few Trotskyites and crypto-Trotskyites who love to spite the communists by hyping the tyrant Duterte and Marcos junior as “populist” and “popular” and not as demagogues. They are practically in alliance with the rabid anti-communists in the Duterte regime and NTF-Elcac who use red-tagging or anti-communist slander to assail the patriotic and democratic forces of the people.
Those who directly and indirectly deny the scandalous fraudulent character of the 2022 elections ignore the fact that the conservative opposition led by the Robredo-Pangilinan tandem, the Catholic and other Christian Churches and their following, and other legal democratic forces were able able to muster and mobilize the gigantic rallies. They have been insinuating that the entire opposition has been incompetent in stopping the glorification of the fascist Marcos and his junior; and in countering the red-tagging or anti-communist slander campaign by the Duterte regime and his military propagandists and butchers in the NTF-Elcac.
If the current automated election system is not at all rejected and replaced by a new system of manual voting and counting at the precinct level, followed by the publicly monitored use of computers to report the voting results to higher levels of authority as in Germany and The Netherlands, there will be no end to the dynasty of every president dominating the elections and giving concessions only to other political dynasties allied with it.
In the elections of 2022, the only reason that the incumbent president Duterte could not make his own daughter Sara the presidential candidate was because she refused to be paired with Bong Go as vice-presidential candidate as a result of contradictions with Honeylet arising from the connivance of her own father, his mistress and the valet Bong Go over the Pharmally racket which yielded billions of pesos to the mistress. Thus, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo prevailed when she advised the 44-year-old Sara to defer to the 64-year-old Marcos, Jr. as presidential candidate because she would be the sure successor in 2028.
But can the Duterte dynasty really expect that BBM will deliver the presidency to Sara in 2028, instead of someone else from his own dynasty, in view of the forthcoming struggles over spoils from a bankrupt economy and government, the worsening of the social, economic and political crisis of the ruling system and the plans to amend the 1987 constitution in the name of federalism in order to remove restrictions on martial law and human rights violations, provide more privileges for foreign monopoly capitalists and their Filipino sidekicks and the removal of the six-year presidential term-limit?
In conclusion, I raise this question in order to show and stress how degraded has been the semicolonial and semifeudal ruling system and how it shall be further degraded by the exploiting classes and their political dynasties and factions. At the same time, we should take notice that the dismal conditions in the Philippines are driving the broad masses of the Filipino people rise up against the combined rule of the Marcos and Duterte dynasties, the worst that have ever emerged in the history of the Philippines, and to advance their revolutionary struggle for national and social liberation. ###
Sharing as received: From former Gen. Eliseo Rio, former NTC Commissioner:
The presentation of Glenn Chong in this show was done three years ago after the 2019 election. I was then the Chairman of the COMELEC Advisory Council (CAC) as Acting Secretary of DICT. During hearings in the Senate, I supported Chong’s findings. But the Random Manual Audit (RMA) showed that the randomly selected clustered precincts whose ballots that were manually counted tallied with the transmitted results of the VCMs by 99.61%. That ended the discussion in favor of COMELEC.
Remember that only around 750 clustered precincts were randomly selected to undergo RMA, and COMELEC/Smartmatic knows the list of those selected. So these VCMs will not be touched. But there are around 100,000 VCMs that can be reconfigured to transmit doctored data. That is why in the 4-point proposal made by UPVI to COMELEC to insure a transparent and credible election, number one suggestion is to do the selection process of the RMA on Election Day itself, so that the selected precincts will be known when all VCMs are already in place with watchers, and the ballots will be immediately manually counted after voting has closed at 7pm and compared with the transmitted results. This was done in the 2010 first automated election, but for some reason never repeated.
Studying closely the election results of the Unofficial and Partial Results coming from the Comelec transparency server from 8pm, May 9, 2022 to 5:30am, May 10, 2022, the following were my observations:
1. In the results of Presidential candidates, each time an update is released, I divided the number of votes of each candidate with the number of votes of the front-runner which in all cases is BBM (see figure 1). This is the vote ratio of the other candidates using the votes cast for BBM as the common denominator. As can be seen, in each update, the ratios of the other candidates remains almost the same throughout the period studied. When these ratios are graphed, one will notice that the lines are almost flat, never intersecting one another.
2. I did the same procedure for the VP candidates, this time using the number of votes of Sara as the common denominator (see figure 2). Strikingly, the results when put in a graph are very similar to the graph for the presidential candidates. The graphs show highly improbable events, statistically speaking. This could not be explained by the Law of Large Numbers (LLN). The law of large numbers, in probability and statistics, states that as a sample size grows, its mean gets closer to the average of the whole population. But in this case, in the first hour that the the results started coming in, the expected outcome was already established and never changed until the end. It’s like throwing a dice that in the first few throws, the expected average of 3.5 has already been established and further throws did not make any difference. That can only happen if the dice is loaded.
Also, in this election, there are so many parameters that are independent of each other that come into play. The results for example come from different places of the country. All candidates have bailiwicks where they are stronger than the other candidates. Even the front runners cannot claim that they are strong in ALL parts of the country. Yet, the graph of the electoral returns where votes of the front runners were made the common denominator, suggest just that. For the positions of the other candidates remained exactly the same as they were in the first hour.
Even variables like a number of VCMs not working, long lines, power outage, shooting incidents, etc, did not change the trend that was established in the first hour of transmission of Ers.
The trend is so consistent that I can actually predict the number of votes of the other candidates in new updates knowing only the number of votes of the front runner. For example, take the results transmitted on 9:02pm of May 9. Knowing only the votes of BBM (20,084,651) and the vote ratio of each other candidates from the previous transmitted results, I can compute the result of votes that the other candidates got, as follows:
1. For Leni, with previous vote ratio of .4732, calculated votes is 9,504,057 while actual votes is 9,492,702 or an error of just +1.1%.
2. For Pacquiao, with previous vote ratio of .0864, calculated votes is 1,735,314 while actual votes is 1,756,290 or an error of just -1.2%.
3. For Isko, with previous vote ratio of .0668, calculated votes is 1,341,655 while actual votes is 1,330,088 or an error of just +0.86%.
4. For Ping, with previous vote ratio of .032, calculated votes is 642,709 while actual votes is 636,590 or an error of just +0.96%. This shows that the transmitted results has become predictable even 2 hours after the closing of voting at 7pm, and can only be done by programming the results.